“Problems of Selecting Experts for Delphi Exercises,” Academy of Management

[//121] The Delphi technique of aggregating the forecasts of a number of experts on multidisciplinary issues/1/ is a recent development in long-range forecasting. By sequentially polling the experts' opinions, interspersed with feedback of information on the just-previous poll to the experts, consensus is generated. Meanwhile, anonymity is guaranteed in the polling procedures so that social psychological pressures usually present in the committee and face-to-face group approaches to multidisciplinary issues are avoided./2/ The Delphi technique is presumably more efficient than the usual committee, and efficiency considerations presuppose cost-sensitivity in forecasting exercises.